Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-08-19T00:22:14

GOES high energy (>2MeV) electron flux has fallen below High levels. The onset of the next HSS from CH72/- during Day 1 (19 Aug) is likely to further suppress electron flux levels at GEO as the radiation belt becomes compressed. Confidence becomes low during the period as there is the potential for a CME glance late Day 1 or more likely during Day 2 (19-20 Aug). That said, a resurgence in flux is possible later in the period as HSS effects from CH72 start to wane.

Fluence levels have dropped below the Active level. The magnitude and timing of any eventual recovery is less certain, but there is a chance of fluence rising back above Active by Day 4 (22 Aug). MOSWOC REFM has been significantly underplaying the current fluence level, though recent observations have converged towards the forecast with fluence remaining below Active, at least in the short-term, being accepted as good advice.