Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-08-16T00:16:07

GOES high energy (>2MeV) electron flux became more stable about High flux as geomagnetic activity from recent CH71/+ waned, and is now expected to remain at a similar level until the onset of the next fast wind. With this feature due into the new UTC working week, Active 24-hour fluence is Expected to remain until Monday 17 August, whereupon electron populations at GEO may fall for a time.

MOSWOC REFM is currently underplaying fluence conditions, and will likely have a relatively poor grasp of any input from upcoming CH72/- given that it is significantly further westward on the disc and therefore due around a day ahead of persistence.