Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-08-14T00:18:53

GOES high energy (>2MeV) electron flux has persisted at High since the onset of what is likely the fast wind from CH71 on 12 Aug, along with the charging that was observed through the previous days. These levels are expected to persist for much of the period, although spells of Moderate flux are possible during diurnal minimum, while peak flux is expected to gradually decline from day 2 (15 Aug) onward.

The associated fluence is currently Active, with a gradual build expected at first (14 Aug), before steadying and then perhaps easing again from day 2 (15 Aug). However, Active fluence likely to persist through the period as supported by both REFM and 27-day recurrence.