Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-08-13T00:19:33

GOES high energy (>2MeV) electron flux has persisted at High since the onset of what is likely the fast wind from CH71 on 12 Aug, along with the previous charging that was observed through the period days. These levels are expected to persist for much of the period, although periods of Moderate flux are possible during diurnal minimum and peak flux is expected to decline later in the period.

The associated fluence is currently Active, with a gradual build expected day 1-2 (13-14 Aug), before easing again days 2-3 (15-16 Aug). However, Active fluence likely to persist through the period. This is supported by both REFM and 27-day recurrence.