Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-08-12T00:20:03

GOES-19 >2MeV electron flux has responded to the recent fast wind onsets, with periods of High flux, modulated at times by further fluctuations in the solar wind environment bringing spells of Background to Moderate flux. This variable environment is likely to persist, with further periods of drop-out possible through the period, most likely from any transition into the fast wind from CH71/+. However, the overall trend for the electron flux is expected to be rising one, with mainly High flux persisting, despite this . 

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to persist at mainly Active levels, with confidence levels only declining slightly through the period due to the uncertain influence of any drop outs in flux from any further fast wind onsets. This is supported by MOSWOC REFM and persistence, although these have been slightly slow in increasing the recently observed Active fluence.