Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-08-11T00:15:55

The diurnal oscillation in high energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) has been rather flattened recently, with electron flux mostly moderate, but flux levels have now increased to reach  high levels from around 10/1145UTC. Confidence in the electron forecast is reduced given uncertainties in the solar wind evolutions, but a persistence of moderate to high flux levels now seems likely into the period as the fast wind influence matures and eventually begins to wane, similar to events on the previous rotation.

The 24 hour integrated fluence looks increasingly likely to rise towards Active (1e8 integrated pfu) levels during the period, with a generally rising trend probable as suggested by MOSWOC REFM and also recurrence, albeit with the risk now looking earlier and stronger.