Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-08-10T00:25:01

The diurnal oscillation in high energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) has been rather flattened recently, with electron flux mostly moderate. The current ongoing HSS and associated geomagnetic activity is likely to temporarily suppress flux levels at GEO, as the increase in wind speeds likely deflects the Van Allen belts. Confidence in the electron forecast is reduced given uncertainties in the solar wind evolutions, but an increase in flux levels seems likely into the period as the fast wind influence matures and eventually begins to wane, similar to events on the previous rotation.

The 24 hour integrated fluence is likely to remain below Active (1e8 integrated pfu) to start the period, but a rising trend is then probable as suggested by recurrence. MOSWOC REFM maintains fluence at or below current observed levels for its entire 72-hour range, which seems reasonable for the first three days of the forecast, but with an increasing chance of rising above the threshold by the end of the period.