MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-08-04T00:25:18
High energy electron flux at GEO is currently at mostly moderate levels. The arrival of the HSS from CH68/- is likely to reduce the electron flux at GEO as the Van Allen belts contract away from GEO. Any glancing blows from CMEs currently forecast, with low confidence, early Day 2 (05 Aug) and early Day 3 (06 Aug) would also be expected to reduce the electron flux at GEO. After any CME glancing blows, electron flux could rebound once again with a chance of seeing diurnally high flux levels by Day 4 (07 Aug).
The corresponding electron fluence will probably remain below the Active (1e8 integrated flux) threshold for much of the period. By Day 4 (07 Aug), there is a slight chance of exceeding Active after the passing of any CME glancing blows. MOSWOC REFM was forecasting fluence levels to remain below Active which seems good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-08-04T00:25:18 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |