MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-08-03T00:20:08
High energy electron flux at GEO is expected to remain at Normal Background to Moderate levels. There is a lessening chance that the Electron flux will briefly reach high levels at diurnal maximum through the period as the Van Allen belt relaxes and expands back towards GEO as the HSS in connection to CH67/- wanes. Geomagnetic activity associated with Earth's connection to CH68/- on day 2 (04 Aug) will likely reduce the electron flux at GEO temporarily and the chance of reaching high levels at the diurnal maximum.
The corresponding electron fluence currently shows a broadly steady trend and probably remaining below the Active (1e8 integrated flux) threshold. MOSWOC REFM forecasts fluence levels reaching the Active threshold on day 1 (03 Aug) which is not considered to offer reasonable guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-08-03T00:20:08 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |