MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-07-30T00:18:52
High energy electron flux at GEO is expected to be Normal to Moderate. It is possible that the Electron flux will increase slightly on day 3 or 4 (1-2 Aug) as the Van Allen belt relaxes and expands back towards GEO after any enhancement from the high speed stream day 2 (31 Jul). However, any High levels are likely to be brief, and only occurring at diurnal maximum. The corresponding electron fluence is on a declining trend and is currently below the Active (1e8 integrated flux) threshold. It is possible fluence may increase on day 3 or 4 (1-2 Aug) but the most likely scenario is that fluence will remain below the Active threshold throughout the period.
MOSWOC REFM output looks to be providing better guidance than recurrence, and supports fluence levels staying below Active.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-07-30T00:18:52 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |