MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-07-29T00:16:24
High energy electron flux levels at GEO are expected to be Low to Moderate for much of the time, but with a diurnal peak of High levels possible today (29 July). The corresponding electron fluence is on a flat trend and is currently below the Active (1e8 integrated flux) threshold. The most likely scenario is that fluence will remain below the Active threshold throughout the period.
MOSWOC REFM output looks to be providing better guidance than recurrence, and supports fluence levels staying below Active.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-07-29T00:16:24 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 15% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |