Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-07-28T00:12:34

High energy electron flux levels at GEO have been at Moderate to High levels in the past 24 hours, peaking 1690pfu at 27/1655UTC. Similar levels are expected on Day 1 (28 July), with a likely drop in flux levels to follow Days 2 and 3 (29 and 30 July) due to the probable influence of CH67/-. Flux levels may begin to recover again by the end of the period but this is low confidence.

Electron fluence has been on a downward trend and is currently below the Active threshold. The most likely scenario is that fluence will remain below the Active threshold for the next few days. MOSWOC REFM output looks to be providing better guidance than recurrence for the forecast period, and supports fluence levels staying below Active.