Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-07-26T00:12:19

Following the arrival of CH66/- on 22 July, the outer Van Allen belt was compressed leading to a suppression of electron flux levels. Over the past 24 hours, signs of recovery have emerged, including elevated diurnal high flux and a corresponding approach toward active 24-hour fluence levels

With the high-speed stream from CH66/- now waning and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) having returned to background conditions, further significant reductions in GEO electron flux—beyond normal diurnal variation—are considered unlikely in the near term. The next potential driver is the uncertain arrival of the 23 July CME, which may cause a redistribution of electron counts, followed by a modest and uncertain recovery heading into the new UTC working week.