Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-07-25T00:10:27

With the arrival of CH66/- on 22 July, the outer Van Allen belt has been compressed away from the location of GEO, and as a result the electron flux has since been suppressed. There have been signs of recovery in the past 24 hours, with diurnal High flux and a resultant approach to Active 24-hour fluence.

Given that the fast wind from CH66/- is now mature and the IMF has returned to Background, the chances of further significant reductions in flux at GEO outside the usual diurnal oscillation is considered less likely. The next main driver in terms of electrons is therefore the uncertain inbound CME from 23 July, with this likely to redistribute counts before an uncertain but smaller magnitude recovery into the new UTC working week.