Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-07-24T00:24:02

With the arrival of CH66/- on 22 Jul the Van Allen belt has been compressed away from the location of GEO, and as a result the electron flux has been at Moderate levels through the day. Further charging is likely from this fast wind connection however, with some recovery likely by day 2 (25 Jul), and High electron flux probable again as diurnal maxima. This is complicated by the possible CME arrival on day 3 (26 Jul), which with any enhanced geomagnetic activity may cause further compression of the Van Allen belt away from GEO for a period, before expanding back out and rising again by day 4 (27 Jul).

The associated 24-hour fluence is currently below the Active threshold and is expected to remain so through day 1 (24 Jul) with a chance of exceeding the threshold from day 2 (25 Jul) onwards. However this is low confidence due to CME influences. REFM forecast data seems unlikely with the current fluence reading well below the current forecast and the recurrence trace is likely a better story, rising through the 25 Jul.