Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-07-19T00:21:59

GOES19 high energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has been at High levels over the past 36 hours, with peak flux of 10300 pfu achieved at 18/1730 UTC. The trend in electron counts at GEO is likely to remain similar or rise further, with High flux levels persisting for much of the period due to the influence of the ongoing high speed stream from CH63/+.

The Electron Fluence is currently Active and is expected to remain so throughout the period. Due to the lack of geomagnetic activity, and ongoing HSS, there is a slight chance that the fluence may achieve Very High levels (1e9 integrated flux). The overall trend above Active observed in MOSWOC REFM is deemed to offer reasonable guidance.