Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-07-17T00:25:04

GOES19 high energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has been Moderate to High over the past 24 hours, with peak flux of 4840pfu achieved at 16/1935UTC. 

The trend in electron counts at GEO is likely to gradually rise in coming days due to the ongoing charging incurred by the CH63/+ and the subsequent relaxation of the Van Allen belts once the high speed stream eases at Earth. The only caveat to this is from a possible weak northern protrusion of CH63/+ during days 1 or 2 (17/18 Jul) which may briefly suppress electron counts.

The Electron Fluence is currently Active, following on from persistent High flux over the last 24 hours. It is expected that this will be maintained throughout days 1 and 2 (17/18 Jul).  Confidence then reduces from day 3 (19 Jul) onwards, perhaps most likely staying above the Active threshold with no significant geomagnetic activity forecast within that period. The daily upward trend observed in MOSWOC REFM is deemed to be good guidance.