Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-07-16T00:26:39

GOES19 high energy (>2 MeV) electron flux was initially Moderate before rising to a diurnal peak, above the Active threshold from around 15/1200 UTC, dropping to Moderate levels again by 15/2100 UTC. 

The electron forecast is rather low confidence, with the recent fast winds from the northern protrusion of CH63/+ charging the electron belts up with only limited geomagnetic activity experienced thus far, as well as in the forecast, this gives a Chance further electron flux rises above the Active threshold through day 1 (16 Jul), perhaps culminating in Active 24-hour fluence by day 2 (17 Jul). While the trend for a slight rise in solar wind can be seen in MOSWOC Enlil can be believed, the actual wind speeds have been around 50km/s too low. ENlil is also showing a rise towards the end of the period, this is viewed with caution at present. 

Overall, a steady or perhaps gradual increase in Fluence is likely, with a Chance of Active conditions by day 2 (17 Jul), confidence then reduces towards the end of the period.