Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-07-15T00:19:05

GOES19 high energy (>2 MeV) electron flux is at predominantly Moderate levels. It need briefly exceed the High threshold between 14/1545UTC and 14/1630UTC peaking at 1160pfu at 14/1550UTC. 

The departure of the recent fast wind peak from the highs seen on last pass renders MOSWOC REFM lower confidence, however there is perhaps a slightly increased chance of a narrow surpassing of the Active 24-hour fluence threshold by midweek UTC. This is given the potential for increased recent charging and the fact that (so far) geomagnetic activity does not seem to be strongly influencing the belts at GEO in terms of redistributing any gains.

Overall, an early-week gradual increase to a Chance of Active is most likely. Any detail from any resurgence in CH63/+ does not factor in here for being too low confidence in terms of onset time.