MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-07-14T00:14:54
GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux is at Moderate levels, following the arrival of the HSS from CH63/+. The fast wind should continue to suppress the electron flux at GEO throughout the outlook period, as the Van Allen belts become compressed. High energy electron flux levels are expected to remain at Background to Moderate levels, although some slight recovery is possible later in the period as influence from the HSS begins to wane. Some diurnal periods of High electron flux are possible by Days 3 and 4 (16-17 Jul).
Electron fluence is currently below the Active threshold. MOSWOC REFM model is indicating a potential rise to Active levels later in the period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-07-14T00:14:54 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |