Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-07-13T00:09:02

GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux is at Moderate levels, following the arrival of the HSS from CH63/+. The fast wind should continue to suppress the electron flux at GEO throughout the outlook period, as the Van Allen belts become compressed. High energy electron flux levels are expected to remain at Background to Moderate levels, although some slight recovery is possible later in the period as influence from the HSS begins to wane. Some diurnal periods of High electron flux are possible by Day 4 (16 Jul) as a result.

Electron fluence is below the Active threshold and are not currently expected to rise to Active. Although the MOSWOC REFM model is currently overestimating fluence levels, the overall trend still provides useful guidance.