MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-07-12T00:17:07
GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux was has reduced to Moderate levels, following the arrival of the HSS from CH63/+. The fast wind should continue to suppress the electron flux at GEO as the Van Allen belts become compressed once again, throughout the remainder of the period.
Electron fluence is now below the Active threshold (1×10⁸ integrated pfu) with a declining trend following the arrival of the HSS from CH63/+. MOSWOC REFM output is currently under-forecasting fluence levels, but the overall trend is considered to offer useful guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-07-12T00:17:07 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |