Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-07-11T00:12:23

GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux rose from moderate levels to high after midday UTC, peaking 3110 pfu at 10/1530 UTC following recent connection to CH62/-. Electron flux levels should begin at mainly high levels, however confidence in the longevity of these high levels is low. The anticipated next fast wind connection to CH63/+ is expected from perhaps late Day 1 or more likely into Day 2 (11-12 Jul), which should suppress the electron flux at GEO as the Van Allen belts become compressed again.

Electron fluence has now also risen just above the Active threshold (1×10⁸ integrated pfu). Active fluence may continue in the near term, before a likely decline as the CH63/+ high-speed solar wind arrives. MOSWOC REFM output is currently under-forecasting fluence levels, but does support the general expectation of a short-term rise followed by a later drop.