Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-07-10T00:12:10

GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has been mainly moderate in the last 24 hours, just briefly touching high levels at the diurnal maximum, as the connection to CH62/- wanes. Electron flux levels could rise somewhat over the next couple of days as the fast wind continues to wane, however confidence in the magnitude of any rise remains low. However, the next fast wind connection to CH63/+ is expected from later Day 2 or Day 3 (11-12 Jul), which could suppress the electron flux at GEO as the Van Allen belts become compressed again.

Electron fluence is below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) but on a rising trend. This rising trend could continue at first, with a chance of reaching Active, before a likely decline with the onset of the CH63/+ fast wind. MOSWOC REFM is suggesting a below Active trend through the next 3 days, which is the most likely outcome.