Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-07-08T00:13:44

GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has been Low to Moderate in the last 24 hours, likely due to recent enhancements following an ongoing connection to CH61/- helping to suppress the electron belts. Electron flux levels are expected to remain in the Moderate range, with possible diurnal peaks reaching High at times over the next 24 hours or so. With the influence of these coronal holes expected to ease from Day 2 (09 July), electron flux levels could begin to rise to moderate to high levels towards the end of the period, although this is low confidence.

Electron fluence is below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) and is expected to remain below this level throughout the forecast period, but perhaps on a rising trend, in line with the MOSWOC REFM model initially. Confidence becomes low by the end of the period and a very slight chance of a rise in fluence is indicated in the forecast probabilities for Day 3 and 4 (10-11 Jul), as the influence of the coronal holes weakens.