Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-07-05T00:07:59

GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has been Low to Moderate in the last 24 hours, likely due to recent enhancements in the geomagnetic field following the glancing arrival of a weak coronal mass ejection (CME). Given the elevated uncertainty in the geomagnetic forecast, this variability is also reflected in the electron environment outlook. Electron flux levels are expected to remain in the Moderate range, with possible diurnal peaks reaching High at times over the coming days. Should geomagnetic activity increase due to a stronger connection with the high-speed stream (HSS) from coronal hole CH61/–, the resulting compression of the outer radiation belts away from geostationary orbit (GEO) could lead to further reductions in observed flux. Although confidence in this scenario is low, this would be most likely on Day 1 (05 July) and potentially again toward the end of the forecast period.

Electron fluence has dropped significantly, falling below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) over the past 24 hours, and is expected to remain below this level throughout the forecast period, in line with the MOSWOC REFM model. There is a slight chance of an upward trend later in the period, though this depends on the arrival and influence of the CH/HSS, which could continue to suppress electron flux levels.