Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-07-04T00:29:29

GOES-19 high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux levels have been on a declining trend due to some recent enhancements to the magnetic field from possible CMEs and/or HSS influence. With significant uncertainty in the geomagnetic forecast going forward, this is also reflected in the electron forecast. Electron flux is likely to remain Moderate with diurnal peaks to High at times in the coming days. Any further enchantments in the geomagnetic activity due to a stronger connection to the HSS from CH61/- may compress the electron belts away from the location of GEO, hence reducing the observed electron flux, this is most likely on day 2 (05 Ju) and perhaps again towards the end of the period. 

Electron Fluence has seen a marked decline below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) level in the last 24 hours and this is likely to persist throughout days 1 and 2 (04-05 Jul) with a chance of it rising above Active on day 3 (06 Jul). However, confidence here is low due to the position of CH61/- and it's interaction with Earth in the medium range. MOSWOC REFM was initially a little too fast to decrease electron fluence, though the trend indicated can be used as a good steer for the potential electron fluence trajectory.