Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-07-01T00:09:15

Electron flux has reached high levels following the easing of fast winds and drop off in geomagnetic activity from CH59/-. These fast winds have charged the Van Allen belts over recent days before the solar wind pressure eased and the belts expanded back out to the location of GEO, allowing for an increase in electron flux levels. Diurnally high levels of flux are anticipated to continue through Day 1 (01 Jul). Confidence falls lower beyond this point as a result of uncertainty in the potential arrival of CMEs (01-03 Jul) and connection to a HSS from CH61/-, currently situated in the central disc, in the southern hemisphere, but generally a decrease in electron flux is expected.

While recently MOSWOC REFM has been over-forecasting fluence levels, recent measurements have now brought it below measured values, likely due to CME contamination from the previous rotation, with a similar explanation for the much lower Recurrence values. Fluence is expected to remain above the Active threshold at least through the first half of Day 1 (01 Jul). Beyond this, confidence lowers in the evolution, with the risk of Active fluence lowering to a Chance on Day 2 (02 Jul) with geomagnetic activity expected to increase once again. By the end of the period fluence is expected to be below the Active threshold, provided the geomagnetic forecast comes to pass.