Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-06-30T00:22:25

Electron flux has reached high levels following the easing of fast winds and drop off in geomagnetic activity from CH59/- and CH60/-. These fast winds served to charge the Van Allen belts over recent days before the solar wind pressure eased and electron flux levels increased. High levels of flux are anticipated to continue through Day 1 (30 Jun), with lower confidence from Day 2 (01 Jul) onwards.. Confidence falls lower as a result of uncertainty in the potential arrival of CMEs (01-03 Jul) and connection to a HSS from CH61/-, currently situated in the southeast disc.

MOSWOC REFM has been over-forecasting fluence levels over the past 48 hours, likely due to CME pollution on the previous rotation and later arrival of the fast winds of CH59/- and CH60/-, however the general trend has been relatively representative. Fluence is expected to remain above the Active threshold at least through Day 1 (30 Jun). Beyond this, confidence lowers in the evolution, with the risk of Active fluence lowering to a Chance for Days 2-3 (01-02 Jul) with geomagnetic activity expected to increase once again.