Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-06-29T00:27:16

Electron flux has reached high levels following the easing of fast winds and drop off in geomagnetic activity from CH59/- and CH60/-. These fast winds served to charge the Van Allen belts over the past few days and as the solar wind pressure eases further, electron flux levels will likely increase, perhaps resulting in persistent high flux throughout Days 1-2 (29-30 Jun). Confidence falls lower from Day 3 (01 Jul), as a result of uncertainty in the potential arrival of a glancing blow from a CME and connection to a HSS from CH61/-, currently situated in the southeast disc.

MOSWOC REFM has been over-forecasting fluence levels over the past 48 hours, likely due to CME pollution on the previous rotation and later arrival of the fast winds of CH59/- and CH60/-. This lowers confidence in the evolution, but on balance Active exceedance is Expected at least through Days 1-2, lowering to a Chance Days 3-4 (01-02 Jun).