Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-06-25T00:10:25

High-energy (≥2 MeV) electron flux observed by GOES-19 has generally remained at moderate levels, briefly reaching a diurnal high of 1,370 pfu at 24/1540 UTC. With a likely magnetic connection to coronal hole CH59 and solar wind speeds potentially approaching 700 km/s, electron flux is expected to remain suppressed through Days 1 and 2. A recovery is most likely from Day 3 onward, as the outer radiation belts begin to relax back toward geosynchronous orbit, leading to a return to high electron flux levels.

Overall, the associated 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold on Days 1 and 2. A rising trend should follow from Day 3 (27 June), with a chance of exceeding the Active threshold on Day 4 (28 June). This outlook is generally supported by the MOSWOC REFM forecasts.