Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-06-24T00:20:38

High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES19 has been generally Moderate, but did briefly reach a diurnal High of 1200 pfu at 23/1520 UTC. Electron flux may reach a diurnal High again on Day 1 (24 Jun), but with an expected connection to CH59/-, and solar winds potentially reaching 700km/s, electron flux is likely to be suppressed through Days 2 and 3, perhaps then recovering again from Day 4 as the electron belts relax back out towards GEO.

Overall, the associated 24-hour fluence has a very slight chance of reaching the Active threshold on Day 1 (24 Jun), but thereafter is likely to remain below the Active threshold, perhaps with a rising trend from Day 4 (27 Jun). The MOSWOC REFM forecasts generally supports this idea.