MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-06-22T00:09:31
High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES19 has been generally Moderate, with a slight uptick relative to the recent past in attaining High flux briefly in the UTC afternoon of Saturday 21 June. The oscillation is nevertheless still showing something of a steady state in recent days. Little change to current electron populations is anticipated for much of guidance period, however towards the middle of the coming UTC working week, some attenuation of counts at GEO is possible as a HSS related to CH59/- arrives. Intervening marginal influence from CH57/+ is not likely to show much departure from current behaviour, given its recent manifestations at around 500km/s.
Overall, the associated 24-hour fluence is therefore expected to continue below the Active threshold. This is supported by both persistence and MOSWOC REFM forecasts.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-06-22T00:09:31 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |