MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-06-21T00:10:34
High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES19 has been generally Moderate and is showing something of a steady state in recent days. Should the inbound 17 June CME miss, there is little to change current electron populations in the forecast until towards the middle of the coming working week when CH59/- arrives. Intervening marginal influence from CH57/+ is not likely to show much departure from current behaviour given its recent manifestations at around 500km/s peak speeds.
The associated 24-hour fluence is therefore expected to continue below the Active threshold. This is supported by both persistence and MOSWOC REFM forecasts.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-06-21T00:10:34 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |