Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-06-20T00:27:39

High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES19 has been generally Moderate. With no significant solar wind enhancements expected, it is unlikely that the Van Allen belts will see any notable charging during the period. Mainly Moderate values are expected to persist, perhaps just briefly peaking at High, but also with an increasing chance of declining to Background at diurnal minimal. This becomes more likely if any CME glance or further coronal hole enhancement occurs today or tomorrow (Friday 20 into Saturday 21 June). 

The associated 24-hour fluence is therefore expected to continue below the Active threshold, potentially seeing a declining trend towards the end of the period. This is supported by both persistence and MOSWOC REFM forecasts, although the latter is lower confidence owing to the possible presence of transients.