Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-06-19T00:27:30

High energy (> 2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-19 has been mostly moderate after recent CME and fast wind enhancements, however this has now likely peaked with the previous days all seeing comparable values at diurnal peak. With no other significant solar wind enhancements expected, it is unlikely that the Van Allen belts will see any further notable charging during the period. Mainly Moderate values are expected to persist, perhaps just briefly peaking at High, but also with an increasing chance of declining to background at diurnal minimal. This becomes more likely if any CME glance or further coronal hole enhancement occurs on day 2-3 (20-21 Jun). 

The associated 24 hour fluence is also expected to continue below the Active threshold, and potentially seeing a declining trend towards the end of the period. This is supported by both persistence of MOSWOC REFM.