Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-06-18T00:09:11

High energy (> 2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES19 has been mostly Moderate but reached High levels very briefly, peaking at 1160pfu at 17/1415 UTC. This is due to the recent fast wind enhancement easing and any subsequent charging of the outer Van Allen belt at lower orbits becoming observed as this expands towards GEO. This is likely to show a similar trend to the previous rotation, with periods of High flux becoming likely at diurnal maximum, but mainly Moderate values continuing. However, confidence is Low due to the potential for further increases in both solar winds and geomagnetic activity from any CME glance that may occur on day 1 (18 Jun) or any further enhancements from the fast winds from CH57/+.

Overall fluence is expected to see a rising trend, perhaps peaking by day 2-3 (19-20 Jun), but likely staying below the Active threshold with a slight chance of rising above. This rising trend is supported by persistence, while REFM is currently considered to be underestimating any likely enhancement.