Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-06-15T00:14:14

The greater than 2MeV electron flux observed at GEO by GOES19 has been at mostly moderate levels. With the arrival of the HSS from CH57/+, a large southern hemisphere coronal hole, Winds speeds are expected to become strong, which could cause an increase in electron flux below GEO. As the HSS wanes through Day 2 (16 Jun), an increase in high energy electron flux is then possible, with an increasing potential for the electron flux to reach high levels from Day 3 (17 Jun), before a possible resurgence of the HSS by Day 4 (18 Jun).

Electron fluence is likely to stay below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold during Day 1 (15 Jun), as indicated by MOSWOC REFM. An increase is possible on Day 2 (16 Jun), with a chance of Active levels being reached later in the day and also through Days 3 and 4 (17-18 Jun). REFM forecasts a slight rise in fluence, but the recurrence may be more accurate which can be seen as approaching the active threshold on Day 2 (16 June).