Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-06-14T00:12:51

The greater than 2MeV electron flux observed at GEO by GOES19 has been at mostly moderate levels. Over the next two days, a combination of HSS and residual CME effects are likely to keep electron flux suppressed at GEO. However, the HSS from CH57/+, a large southern hemisphere coronal hole, is likely to arrive Day 1 (14 Jun). Winds speeds are expected to become strong, which could cause an increase in electron flux below GEO. As the HSS wanes through Day 2 (15 Jun), an increase in high energy electron flux is then possible, with an increasing potential for the electron flux to reach high levels from Day 3 (16 Jun).

Electron fluence is likely to stay below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold during Day 1 (14 Jun), as indicated by MOSWOC REFM. An increase is possible on Day 2 (15 Jun), with a chance of Active levels being reached later in the day and also through Days 3 and 4 (16-17 Jun). REFM is not yet forecasting a rise in fluence, but this is likely to be because the HSS hasn't arrived yet, and REFM will respond after this occurs.