Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-06-12T00:14:09

The greater than 2MeV electron flux observed at GEO by GOES19 has been at mostly moderate levels. Over the next two days, a combination of HSS and potential CME effects are likely to keep electron flux suppressed at GEO. However, the HSS from CH57/+ which is likely to start on Day 2 (13 Jun) will probably bring strong wind speeds which could cause an increase in electron flux below GEO. As the HSS wanes through Day 4 (15 Jun), an increase is then possible, with potential for the electron flux to reach high levels from Day 4.

Electron fluence is expected to stay below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold during Days 1-3 (12-14 Jun), as indicated by MOSWOC REFM. An increase is possible on Day 4, with a chance of Active levels being reached later in the day.