Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-06-09T00:11:51

The greater than 2MeV electron flux observed at GEO by GOES19 has proven volatile through a wide range of values since the beginning of June. Confidence in the forecast is now low for the period as a whole - a trait inherited from the geomagnetic forecast and it being dominated by marginal CME infleunce. While the 01 June CME strongly charged the Van Allen belts, it is now very unclear as to the degree to which these counts survive inside GEO, with some losses expected in the subsequent CME activity from 06 June onwards. Further multiple inbound events will very likely make for volatile electron counts at GOES in the four days, with the chances of Active 24-hour fluence reduced relative to recent guidance given their new lower level as of the UTC weekend and the expectation that this is regularly interrupted. MOSWOC REFM is not considered good guidance in the period given the forecast's reliance on transient rather than coronal hole-derived activity.

Overall there is a rising Chance of Active 24-hour electron fluence, although the cadence of inbound events makes further detail elusive.