Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-06-02T00:08:38

Electron flux fell sharply after the arrival of the expected CME, returning to background levels shortly after 01/0600 UTC. 

An enhancement is likely to follow this initial depletion; however, it may take several days for the radiation belts to fully recover and for electron flux at GEO to return to high levels.

The associated 24-hour electron fluence has also fallen below the "Active" threshold and is expected to remain at this level through Day 1 (02 Jun) and Day 2 (03 Jun) at least . It may recover from Day 3 (04 Jun) onwards but confidence is low since it hinges entirely on the duration of the magnetic cloud associated with the CME. Additionally, the MOSWOC REFM model is expected to overestimate electron flux, as it does not account for the CME influence, and so will not be useful as a forecasting tool.