Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-05-26T00:14:57

Electron flux at GOES19 has been fluctuating between moderate to high levels diurnally over the last several days, following the fast speed stream from CH48/+. No further enhancement from this coronal hole is expected, with electron flux levels likely to follow a similar trend over the next couple of days. The next coronal hole likely to enhance electron flux is CH51/- from day 3 or 4 (28-29 May) onwards.

The associated fluence is currently below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and is displaying a slight declining trend. This is most likely to continue over the following days, with no or little chance of rising. This is supported by the latest MOSWOC REFM which suggests a general declining trend and is considered to be good guidance, at least at first. A potential rise in fluence later in the period is possible following any connection to CH51 increasing electron flux at GEO, which isn't indicated in the model.