Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-05-25T00:09:14

Electron flux at GOES19 has been fluctuating between moderate to high levels diurnally over the last several days, due to the fast speed stream from CH48/+. This coronal hole is a recurrent feature which saw a limited geomagnetic response during the last rotation, with electron flux progressively returning to back and moderate levels. A similar trend is most likely to happen than not considering the absence of notable high speed stream. The next coronal hole likely to enhance electron flux is CH51/- but it looks much smaller than last time around and is expected on Day 5 (29 May). 

The associated fluence is currently below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and is displaying a slight declining trend. This is most likely to continue over the following days, with no or little chance of rising. This is supported by the latest MOSWOC REFM which suggests a general declining trend and is considered to be good guidance.