Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-05-24T00:25:17

Electron flux at GOES19 has been at moderate to high levels over the last several days due to the fast wind from CH48/+. Despite occasionally strong wind speeds, geomagnetic response to this feature has been limited and as such we have not so far seen significant increases in electron flux at GEO. Overall, it is considered unlikely that electron flux will increase much during this period.

The associated fluence has been on a fairly steady trend just below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, and is likely to continue near this level at first, perhaps declining later in the period. MOSWOC REFM is now suggesting a declining trend over the next three days, and this trend is considered reasonable guidance.