Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-05-22T12:10:38

GOES19 high energy electron flux has persisted at mainly Moderate levels in the wake of the main part of CH48/+. As solar winds ease to end the current UTC week, flux may rise at GEO due to the decreasing solar wind pressure, allowing for brief periods of High flux, but will now likely fall short of being able to result in Active 24-hour fluence. Any onset of the fast winds form CH50/+ into the UTC weekend will likely bring a drop-out in observed values at GEO.

The associated 24-hour fluence is currently below Active (1e8 integrated pfu) and is now likely to persist below this level. MOSWOC REFM is currently overestimating any potential rise in values, with 27-day persistence providing a better guide.