Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-05-22T00:21:30

GOES-19 high energy electron flux has persisted at mainly Moderate, despite the ongoing and strong fast wind from CH48/+. This is likely due to the positive polarity of the coronal hole and the limited geomagnetic connection at this time of year, and limited subsequent geomagnetic activity as a result. As solar winds ease days 1-2 (22-23 May), flux may rise at GEO due to the decreasing solar wind pressure, allowing for brief periods of High flux. Any onset of the fast winds form CH50/+ on day 3 or into day 4 (24-25 May) will likely bring a drop out in observed values.

The associated 24 hour fluence is currently below Active (1e8 integrated pfu) and likely to persist below this level. A slightly rising trend is possible day 2-3 (24-25 May), before declining thereafter, especially if any connection to further fast winds from CH50/+ occurs. MOSWOC REFM is currently overestimating any potential rise in values, with 27-day persistence providing a better guide.