Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-05-19T00:11:30

High energy electrons are expected to show a day-on-day flux rise into the new UTC working week, as geomagnetic activity from the current fast wind from CH48/+ wanes. MOSWOC REFM is forecasting a very marked rise to Very Active 24-hour fluence by Tuesday 20 May - this is felt to be overdone in magnitude, however a more muted version of this trend is considered realistic as dynamic pressure on the Van Allen belts eases. With no CMEs forecast and the current coronal hole the only feature in the forecast, confidence is perhaps a little higher than is typical for the recovery of electrons at GEO, becoming Likely by midweek UTC.