Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-05-16T00:08:26

High energy electron flux appears to be in a steady state with the next significant solar wind enhancement due from later Day 3 (18 May). Prior to this only potential slight solar wind enhancements from weak coronal hole influence or glancing CMEs are forecast over the next couple of days. Electron flux is likely to remain within mostly moderate levels, with just a slight chance of diurnal high peaks.

MOSWOC REFM is currently slightly underestimating the fluence, but despite this the REFM model is giving reasonable guidance as it keeps the fluence well below the Active (1e8 integrated flux) threshold on a roughly flat trend. A slight rising trend is indicated in the table below later in the period due to decreasing confidence at this range in fluence behaviour, following anticipated connection with CH48.