MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-05-15T00:10:27
High energy electron flux appears to be in a steady state with no significant enhancements due, only potential slight solar wind enhancements from weak coronal hole influences or glancing CMEs are forecast over the coming days. Electron flux may rise to give some diurnal highs late in the period due to these enhancements, but this is low confidence.
MOSWOC REFM is currently slightly underestimating the fluence, but despite this the REFM model is giving reasonable guidance as it keeps the fluence well below the Active (1e8 integrated flux) threshold on a roughly flat trend. A slight rising trend is indicated in the table below later in the period as a nod to any potential enhancements from CH49 or any CME glances, but remains only a very slight chance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-05-15T00:10:27 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |